Nothing happening on the ground in southern Lebanon suggests that what the Lebanese side is seeking — as it enters the third round of negotiations on Thursday, May 14 — is within reach. Lebanon's goals are to consolidate a ceasefire covering all Lebanese territory and to begin serious negotiations over an Israeli withdrawal from the towns and villages it has occupied in the south, against Israel's longstanding demand: the disarmament of Hezbollah.
There is no question that military operations have intensified in recent days between Israel and the party. Tel Aviv's government is also studying the possibility of expanding the war again to "rein in" Hezbollah, as it puts it.
The Lebanese side, which will be represented in the third round by Lebanon's ambassador to Washington Nada Maatouk, has according to information from Washington been lobbying heavily in American decision-making circles to pressure Israel into cementing the ceasefire permanently before advancing to higher rounds of negotiations. The field picture in the south, however, appears to be moving in the exact opposite direction — on both sides: Israel and Hezbollah. Sources indicate that the American administration is not confident in the Lebanese government's ability to deal firmly with Hezbollah, and is therefore unlikely to pressure Israel into a permanent ceasefire unless it receives guarantees from the Lebanese side that Hezbollah will be prevented from continuing its military activity.
Informed sources in Washington reveal that Israel will reject this entirely and will not show leniency toward Hezbollah, which repeatedly and publicly declares that it has no interest in any negotiations or ceasefire, invoking its right to resistance and the liberation of land. The most Trump can realistically do, therefore, is constrain the fighting and keep Lebanese depth — such as the capital Beirut — safe from Israeli airstrikes, except in specific cases that call for intervention to eliminate a particular Hezbollah official, as happened last week when Radwan Force (Hezbollah's elite ground unit) commander Ahmad Ghaleb Ballout was assassinated.
Neither Israel nor Hezbollah wants a ceasefire. American sources therefore describe the existing arrangement as essentially symbolic in character — aimed primarily at containing the scope of the fighting, functioning as a diplomatic measure rather than a full halt to hostilities.
Exclusive information obtained by Al-Modon, however, indicates that the Lebanese side will insist on this demand — particularly the cessation of Israel's systematic destruction of villages and towns, and the bulldozing of homes and livelihoods of southern Lebanese. This task has been assigned to US Ambassador Michael Eissey and Ambassador Maatouk in the third session, and to Ambassador Simon Karam in the fourth.
The Lebanese side's ambitions may be considerable, because Israel wants the negotiations to take place under fire directed against Hezbollah — not against the Lebanese state. But sources note that the state's calculations differ: an Israeli response to Lebanon's demand for a consolidated ceasefire would improve the Lebanese state's position domestically, giving it an advantage over Hezbollah and its Iranian patron, and affirming the separation of the two tracks. This remains extremely difficult, however, according to American sources — despite the Trump administration's understanding of official Lebanon's calculations — which will push it to bind Israel against expanding the war, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and some of his cabinet ministers have been threatening.
Ceasefire experiences have not been successful elsewhere — in Gaza, and in Lebanon as well, where since November 2024 both Israel and Hezbollah have traded accusations of violations.
Reliable information confirms that the American mediator may succeed in convincing Israel to allow a temporary and comprehensive ceasefire during the negotiating period — which may stretch across all the summer months — on the logic that Hezbollah cannot be eliminated through force alone, but through creating a comfortable atmosphere for diplomatic efforts and enabling the Lebanese army to carry out the task of disarmament, despite the previous unsuccessful experience.
There will therefore be a tug of war between the Lebanese demand for a consolidated ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied towns and villages on one hand, and the Israeli demand for the Lebanese government to take concrete steps leading to Hezbollah's disarmament as quickly as possible on the other.
American sources believe that neither the Israeli side nor the American administration will grant Lebanon a long period to accomplish disarmament, while the Israeli army remains in the security belt it has established in the south to monitor the disarmament process — or else Israel will return to expanding its military operations to carry out disarmament itself.
Given all these calculations, nothing guarantees that Hezbollah will remain on the sidelines while these negotiations continue. Its interest — and Iran's — appears to lie in torpedoing them through the continuation of military operations, and in forcing a ceasefire agreement through the Islamabad negotiations track, keeping Lebanon a card in the Iranian regime's hand.
It is no secret that Trump is expending every effort to provide the best possible conditions for negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. Well-informed American sources say he has a personal interest in reaching the desired outcome — to say: "I achieved a peace agreement between two states that have been at war for decades" — which he will promote as one of the fruits of his war against Iran.
Sources indicate that Trump is well aware that the primary obstacle to any agreement in the negotiations — including the consolidation of a ceasefire — is Hezbollah. His advisory team is raising multiple question marks over the success of any ceasefire in Lebanon, as long as the broader regional war has not ended and may yet see new waves of escalation, as appears likely given the stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Even so, Trump's interventions in Lebanon to restrain Israel — based on official Lebanese demands — will not cease, and Thursday will be the real test. Any ceasefire, however, according to information from Washington, will remain fragile and in no way durable before an agreement is reached on all the contentious files — chief among them the disarmament of Hezbollah.
