In the absence of any official surveys of war damage to date, and following Lebanon's entry into a ten-day ceasefire period beginning last night, preliminary estimates are beginning to sketch a picture of the scale of destruction wrought by the conflict that has been ongoing since March 2. Actual figures are widely expected to be far higher.
Varying Estimates
Estimates vary considerably depending on the scope of damage assessed — whether infrastructure, housing, institutions, or economic activity, and whether direct or indirect losses are included. In any case, these figures remain partial and limited, given that military operations continued until recently and may resume if a final ceasefire agreement is not reached.
Some experts have drawn on data from the previous 2024 war, during which international institutions cited losses of approximately $225 million — a figure that Mohammad Shams al-Din, a researcher at the International Institute for Information (a Beirut-based data and research firm frequently cited in Lebanese economic reporting), disputes as inaccurate. Shams al-Din estimates that losses from the current conflict amount to no less than $5 billion, based on unofficial projections — a substantial sum relative to the size of the Lebanese economy. Finance Minister Yassine Jaber has offered a preliminary estimate of approximately $7 billion in war-related damage, describing the losses that will emerge from comprehensive surveys as "enormous."
These losses are all the more alarming given their timing:
Lebanon entered this conflict before having recovered from the fallout of the 2024 war, which cost the country roughly $15 billion. The economy is now confronting a double shock that deepens the contraction and widens the financing gap for reconstruction.
The war has also had a direct impact on vital sectors, with tourism nearly at a standstill, sharp declines in trade and production, and rising unemployment and cost-of-living pressures. Against these indicators, experts warn that the true scale of losses will only become clear after the conflict ends entirely — but that it will, without question, far exceed initial estimates.
The Numbers
In an interview with Al-Modon, Shams al-Din breaks down the preliminary estimates for losses in the recent conflict. He notes that the number of buildings destroyed stands at 245, though the exact number of apartments within those buildings has yet to be precisely determined. Assuming an average of ten floors per building and two apartments per floor — roughly 20 units per building — the figure amounts to approximately 4,900 destroyed residential units.
This figure, however, remains subject to revision upward or downward pending the results of field surveys that have not yet been fully completed.
In southern Lebanon, the data indicates that entire villages sustained widespread destruction, with estimates of approximately 13,000 residential units completely destroyed. When all Lebanese regions are taken into account — from the south to Beirut and the Bekaa Valley — the total is estimated at a minimum of around 19,200 destroyed residential units, according to Shams al-Din. Added to this are the losses from the previous war, which were estimated at approximately 53,000 residential units — none of which have been rebuilt. This brings the combined total to roughly 73,000 residential units completely destroyed across the two wars.
Residential units sustaining partial damage from the current conflict are estimated at around 67,000, bringing the total number of units affected by either complete or partial destruction to approximately 87,000.
On the economic front, Shams al-Din estimates indirect losses resulting from the halt in economic activity at around $1.6 billion, noting that other estimates have cited daily losses of up to $100 million — a figure he considers very high relative to the size of the Lebanese economy.
Losses Exceeding $5 Billion
Referring to earlier estimates from the 2024 war — in which daily losses were put at roughly $225 million — Shams al-Din argues that figure is unrealistic, and that the $100 million daily estimate is also inflated. He grounds his reasoning in Lebanon's GDP, which ranges between $30 and $35 billion annually.
Taking a GDP of $35 billion as a baseline, the average daily output amounts to roughly $100 million. Given that the economy was not fully paralyzed, the actual daily losses are likely considerably lower, with marked variation across sectors: some partially offset their losses while others were more severely disrupted.
On this basis, Shams al-Din holds that the total losses remain preliminary and are unlikely to fall below $5 billion, pending official surveys.
Following the previous war, combined direct and indirect losses were estimated at approximately $15 billion. Should the current conflict end without those earlier losses having been absorbed — which remains the case given the absence of reconstruction financing — the two rounds of destruction would together constitute a cumulative toll on the Lebanese economy.
